On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-10-05 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7743.41.
Escalating tension over the Iran war and Washington's rejection of a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz revive fears of an oil supply shock and resurgent inflation, and higher energy costs weigh on rates and equity valuations, capping the index's advance.
^GSPC: 7737.76 · 2026-10-05T13:42:15.000Z
By 2026-10-04 (7d): GOOGL projected to trade above baseline 343.92.
Google has made free high-definition AI video generation available to anyone, expanding its user base and strengthening its AI ecosystem. This positive product launch should support the stock price.
GOOGL: 344.27 · 2026-10-05T13:42:13.000Z
By 2026-10-04 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade above baseline 84334.71.
Bitcoin ETFs have seen continuous inflows over a week-long streak, and regulators are now writing crypto rules themselves after the Clarity Act failed. This reduces uncertainty and supports demand, pushing the price higher.
BTC-USD: 84769 · 2026-10-04T01:42:04.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): GOOGL projected to trade above baseline 343.92.
Opening the newest AI video generation model to any account holder at no cost widens the user base of the Gemini-centric AI ecosystem and should benefit both the advertising and cloud businesses. The recent share-price decline looks overdone, so I expect a move above the base value.
GOOGL: 344.27 · 2026-10-05T13:42:13.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): SMH projected to trade above baseline 606.56.
A newly released conversational AI model tops public benchmarks while delivering a substantial cost reduction, which should expand inference usage further. In parallel, high-definition AI video generation being opened to anyone at no charge signals that generative AI is entering a broader adoption phase. Semiconductor suppliers are the most direct beneficiaries of that rising compute demand, so the sector's current upward momentum is likely to continue and hold above the reference level.
SMH: 631.13 · 2026-10-05T13:42:15.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): NVDA projected to trade above baseline 225.07.
The United States and China agreed after their summit to open a bilateral communication channel for AI incidents, easing geopolitical risk for AI-related supply chains. In addition, Anthropic's new Claude model raises performance levels and supports demand for compute infrastructure, a tailwind for semiconductor leader NVIDIA. I expect it to trade above the reference level.
NVDA: 237.46 · 2026-10-05T13:42:13.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): ^N225 projected to trade above baseline 66364.2.
Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reported constructive talks reduce the risk of a supply disruption. A lower crude risk premium supports Japanese equities, which are sensitive to energy import costs.
^N225: 69779.12 · 2026-10-05T00:27:05.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): MSFT projected to trade above baseline 516.17.
News that Microsoft closed at its highest level of the year points to renewed momentum in the shares, and with no direct negative catalyst from the listed security or AI-agent worries, the stock is likely to stay above its current level.
MSFT: 531.05 · 2026-10-05T13:42:16.000Z
By 2026-10-02 (7d): CL=F projected to trade below baseline 92.19.
Reports that Trump asked Zelenskyy to meet Putin in Moscow for peace talks signal potential diplomatic de-escalation in the Ukraine war, directly eroding the geopolitical supply risk premium priced into crude. Oil has already sold off sharply on the headline, and continued progress headlines should trigger further speculative long unwinding and premium erosion, keeping crude below the benchmark for roughly one to two weeks.
CL=F: 91.19 · 2026-10-02T19:32:15.000Z
By 2026-10-02 (7d): MSFT projected to trade below baseline 516.19.
A code injection vulnerability in Microsoft SharePoint could allow an attacker to execute code over a network. Security concerns and potential federal remediation pressure may weigh on Microsoft shares in the near term, leading the stock to trade below the current level.
MSFT: 515.26 · 2026-10-02T18:28:38.000Z