On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-11-02 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 25955.34.
Musk's warning that SpaceX's AI rivals are in trouble, together with the reported decline in related stocks, increases caution toward artificial-intelligence and technology shares. A dot-com survivor's warning against buying the technology dip reinforces that risk-off sentiment, making pressure on the tech-heavy Nasdaq more likely despite the absence of a hard policy catalyst.
^IXIC: 25502.26 · 2026-11-02T17:41:21.000Z
By 2026-11-02 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 80201.4.
Iran-related weekend fears have weakened risk sentiment, while Bitcoin has broken below a major support level. Ahead of major earnings, the FOMC and key data releases, event risk and defensive repositioning may dominate and keep Bitcoin below the reference level.
BTC-USD: 76859.3 · 2026-11-02T17:41:18.000Z
By 2026-11-01 (7d): GOOGL projected to trade below baseline 320.21.
Google quietly changed its privacy policy to allow connected Gmail, Drive, and Photos data to be used for advertising personalization through Personal Intelligence AI. This concrete policy change could provoke user backlash and regulatory scrutiny while weakening trust in the platform and advertiser confidence. Over the short term, GOOGL is more likely to trade below the reference level.
GOOGL: 282.29 · 2026-11-02T17:41:20.000Z
By 2026-11-01 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 80499.58.
Keystone’s disclosure of customer names, phone numbers, and addresses represents a concrete security incident that could damage confidence in hardware wallets used by large holders. In addition, several major companies are opposing the planned tokenized-stock venue, increasing uncertainty around timely institutional adoption. Weaker crypto demand and risk appetite create selling pressure, making a move below the reference level more likely for BTC.
BTC-USD: 77827.84 · 2026-11-01T21:41:20.000Z
By 2026-10-31 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7623.68.
Officials' warning that Iran is in advanced stages of planning attacks against Americans raises the risk of retaliation and wider regional escalation. Potential energy-price pressure and monetary tightening concerns would lift the risk premium, reduce confidence in forward earnings, and weigh on U.S. large-cap equities.
^GSPC: 7603.46 · 2026-11-02T17:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-30 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7623.68.
U.S. diplomats and families are being evacuated from Middle Eastern embassies amid escalation fears, while a church funeral attack in Jordan and protests in Egypt add to regional instability. Together, these developments raise geopolitical and energy-supply risk, and short-term risk aversion is likely to outweigh defensive rotation within equities. This supports a decline in the broad U.S. equity index versus the baseline.
^GSPC: 7603.46 · 2026-11-02T17:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-30 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 210.96.
The weekly open-model AI briefing reports that DeepSeek's new model operates with far less compute than frontier models, while Meta, NVIDIA and Liquid AI are accelerating open-weight releases; open-weight models also account for most processed tokens. This structural shift lowers compute required per task and challenges expectations of sustained premium accelerator demand and pricing power. The recent weakness in NVIDIA and the semiconductor ETF reinforces downside risk relative to the reference level.
NVDA: 206.19 · 2026-11-02T17:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-29 (7d): META projected to trade below baseline 648.85.
Meta's decision to distribute non-voting shares to holders and use the new equity structure to finance its AI buildout is a direct downside catalyst. Although Zuckerberg retains voting control, the heavier capital requirement and future share-supply overhang can compress valuation relative to the current benchmark, with further downside risk over the coming week.
META: 611.16 · 2026-11-02T17:41:22.000Z
By 2026-10-29 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 25929.21.
The emergence of a free AI-based software replication tool described as the end of software raises concerns that pricing power and margins for paid software and AI applications could erode, creating downside pressure for Nasdaq software holdings. Community friction over a data-center campus in Utah also adds regulatory and social costs to technology investment.
^IXIC: 25502.26 · 2026-11-02T17:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-26 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade above baseline 26140.03.
China's GDP beat estimates, improving global risk appetite and lifting Nasdaq futures, which should support a rebound in the Nasdaq Composite.
^IXIC: 26204.71 · 2026-10-26T19:41:18.000Z