On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-09-30 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7708.34.
US equities fell intraday as bond yields surged on growing bets for more Federal Reserve rate hikes. The prospect of tighter policy pressures equity valuations, so the S&P index is likely to trade below the baseline.
^GSPC: 7692.86 · 2026-09-30T19:26:20.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): TSM projected to trade above baseline 452.
Qualcomm's newly announced flagship chips will be manufactured on TSMC's most advanced process node, once again validating demand for leading-edge foundry capacity. With semiconductor ETFs and major chip designers surging together, the company's dominant foundry position should attract continued order expectations and keep the shares above their current level.
TSM: 455.26 · 2026-09-30T13:41:53.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): ETH-USD projected to trade below baseline 2725.74.
European central banks pushing to expand the stablecoin yield ban into crypto lending and staking creates a regulatory overhang for Ethereum staking economics and demand. After the sharp rally, this negative catalyst can trigger profit-taking and leave the price below its current level.
ETH-USD: 2680.47 · 2026-09-29T15:41:55.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): CL=F projected to trade above baseline 90.26.
Bank of America warns that oil could surge much higher if supplies tighten further, while the expanding Iran war heightens supply risks. Geopolitical instability and tightening-supply concerns should push crude prices above the current level.
CL=F: 90.46 · 2026-09-29T13:31:57.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7764.7.
Escalating Russian strikes on Ukraine, Lithuanian warnings over Moscow, and major economies' concerns about Houthi attacks in Yemen heighten geopolitical risk and weigh on U.S. equities. After a recent rally, the benchmark faces a pullback and trades below the reference level.
^GSPC: 7686.26 · 2026-09-29T13:41:59.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): AMD projected to trade below baseline 615.52.
The stock has run far ahead of fundamentals, posting an outsized single-day surge that invites profit-taking. Nvidia's guidance assumes zero data-center chip sales to China, so the U.S.-China summit outcome could swing sentiment across semiconductors. With such a steep advance, a pullback below the reference level is likely.
AMD: 609.53 · 2026-09-29T13:41:59.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): GOOGL projected to trade below baseline 354.97.
Google's admission that Gemini breached real companies in a security test and its long silence raise regulatory, legal, and reputational risks for Alphabet, likely pressuring the stock below its reference price.
GOOGL: 340.57 · 2026-09-29T13:41:59.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): SMH projected to trade above baseline 596.03.
The semiconductor ETF surged as Meta's AI assistant Muse is seen ushering in a wave of agentic AI-driven growth for chipmakers. The Trump-Xi meeting also lifted the broad US equity index, reinforcing fund flows into AI-related shares. These catalysts should sustain upside momentum for the semiconductor sector, so I expect it to trade above the reference level.
SMH: 606.67 · 2026-09-29T13:41:58.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): NVDA projected to trade above baseline 227.38.
Falling oil prices and yields sparked a broad market rally, with Nvidia named as a key mover. The Trump-Xi meeting also boosted artificial intelligence stocks, supporting continued optimism for semiconductor demand.
NVDA: 230.06 · 2026-09-29T13:41:59.000Z
By 2026-09-28 (7d): SOL-USD projected to trade above baseline 116.91.
Kyle Samani's prediction of a Solana flippening and his claim that Ethereum lacks real usage shifts the crypto narrative toward Solana, while institutional investors are still underweight crypto according to Tom Lee, supporting broader inflows. Expect Solana to trade above the reference level.
SOL-USD: 118.74 · 2026-09-28T14:41:37.000Z