On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-10-26 (7d): ETH-USD projected to trade below baseline 2422.02.
The Qubic chain freeze after an attacker drained funds from numerous wallets with weak seeds has reignited concerns over crypto security and retail asset protection. Meanwhile, US PPI came in far above expectations, leading markets to price in continued Fed rate hikes, which pressures risk assets broadly. Ethereum, with its high beta, is sensitive to such macro headwinds and deteriorating sentiment, and is expected to trade below the reference level.
ETH-USD: 2320.5 · 2026-10-26T12:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-26 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 82085.09.
Bitcoin ETFs continue to see massive outflows, and the monthly rally remains in the red. Meanwhile, a much hotter-than-expected US producer price report strengthens expectations for further rate hikes, adding headwinds for crypto. While outflows and tightening fears persist, the price is expected to trade below the reference level.
BTC-USD: 80201.4 · 2026-10-26T12:41:23.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): CL=F projected to trade above baseline 99.02.
Reports that crude-laden tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire have abruptly crystallized supply-disruption risk at the world's most critical oil chokepoint. A partial closure there would tighten the market fast. Washington's temporary suspension of Russia sanctions adds supply, but that is outweighed by the chokepoint shock. With producer prices far above expectations and money rotating into real assets and commodities, crude is poised to trade above its current level.
CL=F: 101.15 · 2026-10-26T12:31:24.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 81370.36.
The US producer price report came in well above expectations, and the prospect of continued rate hikes is weakening support for crypto assets. At the same time, crypto firms have launched a quantum resistance alliance, highlighting warnings that a large amount of Bitcoin remains exposed to quantum computing threats. With broad risk-asset selling pressure, Bitcoin is likely to trade below its current level.
BTC-USD: 80733.89 · 2026-10-25T01:41:26.000Z
By 2026-10-24 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 81515.67.
Geopolitical risk is spiking after reports that the US Navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has stopped Iranian ships and that multiple oil tankers and vessels have been hit. With crude surging and tech stocks selling off, crypto assets are likely to face the same risk-off pressure as highly liquid risk assets and trade below the reference level.
BTC-USD: 80850.11 · 2026-10-24T03:41:20.000Z
By 2026-10-23 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 26713.03.
Fed Chair Warsh withheld an October rate signal and warned the AI path is bumpy, a headwind for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite. Fading rate-cut expectations and caution on AI themes are likely to reinforce selling pressure.
^IXIC: 26070.34 · 2026-10-23T15:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-23 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 217.23.
A worsening tech wreck and renewed artificial intelligence fears are pressuring NVIDIA and other chip stocks as investors dump artificial intelligence-related shares, so the price is expected to fall below the reference.
NVDA: 212.43 · 2026-10-23T15:41:26.000Z
By 2026-10-23 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 82323.
Russia's central bank confirmed a forthcoming ban on direct peer-to-peer Bitcoin trading, forcing trades through approved brokers or exchanges. Reduced direct liquidity and softer crypto sentiment are likely to push the price below the reference.
BTC-USD: 81747.57 · 2026-10-23T02:41:17.000Z
By 2026-10-22 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 26692.87.
Hot US inflation has revived rate-hike expectations and triggered selling in richly valued tech shares. The AI trade is splintering, leaving the tech-heavy index exposed to further downside. I expect it to trade below the reference level.
^IXIC: 25929.21 · 2026-10-22T19:41:23.000Z
By 2026-10-22 (7d): SMH projected to trade below baseline 564.74.
Gartner's forecast that most of the neocloud market will cease to exist has sharply intensified doubts about the durability of AI infrastructure spending. Combined with Anthropic's slowing growth being read as a red flag for the entire AI trade, the outlook for capex-driven semiconductor demand is deteriorating. With major chip names selling off hard, the semiconductor ETF should stay in a corrective phase.
SMH: 521.08 · 2026-10-22T19:41:25.000Z