On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-10-26 (7d): META projected to trade above baseline 709.33.
Meta’s open-weights model Muse Spark Open reportedly earned the highest score among US open-weights models and surpassed NVIDIA’s Nemotron, strengthening Meta’s AI credibility and creating upward pressure. Broad tech weakness is a headwind, but relative resilience and the model release should support the stock.
META: 632.57 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-26 (7d): GOOGL projected to trade above baseline 340.59.
The newest Gemini model entered wide release for paying subscribers and developer tooling, with a sharply expanded output ceiling and introductory pricing. That reinforces its product and price competitiveness versus rivals, making a rebound from the recent pullback more likely than further decline.
GOOGL: 317.05 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-26 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 214.13.
SemiAnalysis reports Google's new TPU beats NVIDIA's flagship rack-scale platform on performance per dollar, amplifying the semiconductor selloff and raising concerns over NVIDIA's pricing power and gross margin outlook. While this competitive shift persists, the stock is expected to trade below the reference price.
NVDA: 216.41 · 2026-10-26T19:41:13.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): AMD projected to trade below baseline 528.75.
SemiAnalysis’ analysis that the latest TPU substantially beats AMD’s GPU on performance per dollar reinforces concerns about AMD’s competitive position. With broad selling pressure across semiconductor shares and the recent sharp drop signaling deteriorating demand and supply, the stock is expected to trade below the reference level.
AMD: 532.27 · 2026-10-26T19:41:20.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): TSM projected to trade below baseline 412.61.
Reports that Taiwan drove away Chinese ships significantly raise tensions in the Taiwan Strait. TSMC is a major semiconductor company based in Taiwan, making geopolitical risk a direct selling catalyst. Additionally, Nvidia's plan to use TSMC's advanced process does not offset concerns about supply chain disruptions. The stock is likely to fall below the current level.
TSM: 427.74 · 2026-10-26T19:41:22.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7659.44.
Taiwan driving away Chinese ships and attacks on oil facilities and a data center in St Petersburg intensify geopolitical risk and push investors toward risk aversion. Such tensions are likely to weigh on broad equity indices and keep the index below the reference level.
^GSPC: 7680.48 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): SMH projected to trade below baseline 539.79.
The producer price index came in far above expectations, rapidly hardening expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate hikes, and rising discount rates directly compress growth-heavy semiconductor valuations. On top of that, deteriorating AI-related credit (surging bond yields at data-center-linked issuers and some debt trading well below par) combined with reports that a large share of planned large-scale data center projects face delays, withdrawal or blocking, keeps funding anxiety around the AI capex cycle alive and sustains sector-wide selling pressure. Even after the steep recent decline, structural rate headwinds and doubts over buildout credibility make prices likely to trade below the baseline over the coming week.
SMH: 544.18 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 214.13.
Analysis showing that the newest dedicated inference chip beats competing GPU racks on performance per dollar for agent workloads is intensifying competition in AI semiconductors. Concerns are rising that major cloud providers will shift procurement toward in-house silicon, keeping selling pressure on NVIDIA. The stock is expected to trade below its current level.
NVDA: 216.41 · 2026-10-26T19:41:13.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 26140.03.
The US producer price report came in far above expectations, strengthening the view that monetary tightening will continue. Rising rates weigh heavily on high-valuation technology and semiconductor shares, and the Nasdaq has already sold off sharply. With few catalysts for a rebound, the index is likely to stay below its current level over the forecast window.
^IXIC: 26204.71 · 2026-10-26T19:41:18.000Z
By 2026-10-24 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 26140.03.
The US producer price index came in far above market expectations, intensifying fears of reaccelerating inflation and boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates. This is putting strong selling pressure on the tech and growth-heavy Nasdaq Composite, with semiconductor stocks already plunging and a clear correction underway. As long as the prospect of prolonged monetary tightening persists, the index is likely to stay below its reference level.
^IXIC: 26204.71 · 2026-10-26T19:41:18.000Z