On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-11-08 (7d): NVDA projected to trade above baseline 204.64.
DeepSeek's release of the Super-Agent research prototype, which can proactively monitor coding issues and suggest solutions, together with Karpathy's use of Claude Code as a desktop application, provides concrete evidence that coding agents are moving into practical, accessible workflows. Broader adoption should increase recurring inference workloads and support demand for NVIDIA's accelerated-compute platform. Open-source efficiency gains and competition limit conviction, but moderate upside above the reference level is more likely.
By 2026-11-08 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 77629.35.
The FBI confirmed North Korea's role in the large-scale Binance hack and asked the DeFi community to block BTC, ETH, and SOL-related addresses. This raises concerns about illicit-asset liquidity, exchange compliance, and broader risk aversion, potentially extending Bitcoin's recent decline. Binance says most stolen assets were replenished and targets Sunday withdrawals, so the bearish catalyst is partly offset by its recovery efforts.
By 2026-11-08 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade above baseline 25437.
Iranian and Qatari officials said talks are under way on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz soon if the United States meets Tehran's conditions. Reduced oil-supply fears could ease energy-driven inflation and interest-rate expectations, supporting a rebound in rate-sensitive Nasdaq stocks after their recent weakness. The reopening remains conditional, and Iran's order for an immediate response to threats keeps the confidence moderate.
By 2026-11-07 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7580.07.
Iran’s supreme leader ordered an immediate and effective response to any threat, raising the risk of further regional escalation and a higher oil risk premium. Higher energy costs would intensify inflation and yield concerns and compress equity valuations, so the US large-cap equity index is expected to finish below the reference level.
By 2026-11-07 (7d): META projected to trade above baseline 614.99.
The Information reported that Meta and Chinese firm Fourier rapidly built a humanoid robot prototype and are developing another. The broader physical-AI optionality can complement Meta’s advertising-dependent business and support a relief rebound from the recent sell-off. At the same time, there are no immediate plans to sell the units and revenue contribution remains distant, keeping conviction moderate.
By 2026-11-07 (7d): GOOGL projected to trade above baseline 279.84.
Following the sharp post-earnings decline in GOOGL, the catalyst explicitly presents the move as a contrarian entry opportunity. It identifies no fresh company-specific adverse development, so the extreme decline can attract value buyers and support a technical rebound from the reference level. Confidence remains moderate because the evidence is market commentary rather than primary reporting proving deliberate price manipulation.
By 2026-11-07 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 25437.
OpenAI's reported cuts to fundraising and valuation targets amid AI jitters point to tighter AI capital and a reset of richly valued technology names. Mistral's updated open weights for agentic coding and cybersecurity increase model competition, while Intel's worst session in decades and massive market-value wipeout expose fragile tech risk appetite. With the Nasdaq already sharply lower, these catalysts favor a break below the baseline.
By 2026-11-07 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 77262.88.
The US approval of a sale of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine signals heightened Russia-Ukraine military tension and renewed energy-price and inflation risk. Bitcoin is vulnerable to a flight to cash during risk-off periods, so it is expected to trade below the reference level.
By 2026-11-07 (7d): NVDA projected to trade above baseline 204.64.
Anthropic's IPO filing disclosed enormous future spending obligations for servers, buildings, and power tied to its AI buildout. This expansion indicates that large-scale AI compute investment will continue, lifting near-term expectations for accelerator demand and supporting NVIDIA above the reference level.
By 2026-11-06 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 76455.37.
Reports of a massive Binance breach, suspected North Korean involvement, U.S. law-enforcement probes, and Circle freezing funds have sharply damaged confidence across crypto. Coinbase-led selling in crypto-related stocks is also weighing on sentiment, pointing to Bitcoin trading below its benchmark.