On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-10-25 (7d): TSM projected to trade below baseline 412.61.
Reports that Taiwan drove away Chinese ships significantly raise tensions in the Taiwan Strait. TSMC is a major semiconductor company based in Taiwan, making geopolitical risk a direct selling catalyst. Additionally, Nvidia's plan to use TSMC's advanced process does not offset concerns about supply chain disruptions. The stock is likely to fall below the current level.
TSM: 427.74 · 2026-10-26T19:41:22.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7659.44.
Taiwan driving away Chinese ships and attacks on oil facilities and a data center in St Petersburg intensify geopolitical risk and push investors toward risk aversion. Such tensions are likely to weigh on broad equity indices and keep the index below the reference level.
^GSPC: 7680.48 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): SMH projected to trade below baseline 539.79.
The producer price index came in far above expectations, rapidly hardening expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate hikes, and rising discount rates directly compress growth-heavy semiconductor valuations. On top of that, deteriorating AI-related credit (surging bond yields at data-center-linked issuers and some debt trading well below par) combined with reports that a large share of planned large-scale data center projects face delays, withdrawal or blocking, keeps funding anxiety around the AI capex cycle alive and sustains sector-wide selling pressure. Even after the steep recent decline, structural rate headwinds and doubts over buildout credibility make prices likely to trade below the baseline over the coming week.
SMH: 544.18 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 214.13.
Analysis showing that the newest dedicated inference chip beats competing GPU racks on performance per dollar for agent workloads is intensifying competition in AI semiconductors. Concerns are rising that major cloud providers will shift procurement toward in-house silicon, keeping selling pressure on NVIDIA. The stock is expected to trade below its current level.
NVDA: 216.41 · 2026-10-26T19:41:13.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 26140.03.
The US producer price report came in far above expectations, strengthening the view that monetary tightening will continue. Rising rates weigh heavily on high-valuation technology and semiconductor shares, and the Nasdaq has already sold off sharply. With few catalysts for a rebound, the index is likely to stay below its current level over the forecast window.
^IXIC: 26204.71 · 2026-10-26T19:41:18.000Z
By 2026-10-24 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 26140.03.
The US producer price index came in far above market expectations, intensifying fears of reaccelerating inflation and boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates. This is putting strong selling pressure on the tech and growth-heavy Nasdaq Composite, with semiconductor stocks already plunging and a clear correction underway. As long as the prospect of prolonged monetary tightening persists, the index is likely to stay below its reference level.
^IXIC: 26204.71 · 2026-10-26T19:41:18.000Z
By 2026-10-24 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7659.44.
Reports that a supertanker struck a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire are stoking oil supply disruption fears. A spike in energy prices revives inflation concerns and pressures corporate margins, while geopolitical risk aversion weighs on the broad index, supporting a downside move from the reference level.
^GSPC: 7680.48 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-24 (7d): SMH projected to trade below baseline 539.79.
With U.S. producer prices far above expectations and expectations for continued tightening growing, the tech selloff is hitting software and chip stocks alike. A semiconductor ETF is sensitive to rates and high-tech demand, so selling pressure is likely to persist.
SMH: 544.18 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-24 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 214.13.
The catalyst noting that the tech selloff is hitting software and chip stocks alike, combined with reports that Google's TPU offers better performance per dollar than NVIDIA's GB-class accelerators in agentic inference benchmarks, heightens concerns over competition and pricing power. AI demand remains strong, but while the semiconductor sector undergoes a broad correction, NVIDIA is likely to trade below the reference level.
NVDA: 216.41 · 2026-10-26T19:41:13.000Z
By 2026-10-23 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7659.44.
The hotter-than-expected US PPI, with core inflation also staying elevated, has sharply increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising rates. This tightening pressure weighs on equity valuations, and the selloff in large-cap technology and semiconductor shares confirms broad risk reduction. As long as inflation re-acceleration and prolonged monetary tightening concerns persist, the major index is likely to trade below the reference level.
^GSPC: 7680.48 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z