On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-10-04 (7d): GOOGL projected to trade above baseline 343.92.
Google has made free high-definition AI video generation available to anyone, expanding its user base and strengthening its AI ecosystem. This positive product launch should support the stock price.
GOOGL: 344.27 · 2026-10-05T13:42:13.000Z
By 2026-10-04 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade above baseline 84334.71.
Bitcoin ETFs have seen continuous inflows over a week-long streak, and regulators are now writing crypto rules themselves after the Clarity Act failed. This reduces uncertainty and supports demand, pushing the price higher.
BTC-USD: 84769 · 2026-10-04T01:42:04.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): GOOGL projected to trade above baseline 343.92.
Opening the newest AI video generation model to any account holder at no cost widens the user base of the Gemini-centric AI ecosystem and should benefit both the advertising and cloud businesses. The recent share-price decline looks overdone, so I expect a move above the base value.
GOOGL: 344.27 · 2026-10-05T13:42:13.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): SMH projected to trade above baseline 606.56.
A newly released conversational AI model tops public benchmarks while delivering a substantial cost reduction, which should expand inference usage further. In parallel, high-definition AI video generation being opened to anyone at no charge signals that generative AI is entering a broader adoption phase. Semiconductor suppliers are the most direct beneficiaries of that rising compute demand, so the sector's current upward momentum is likely to continue and hold above the reference level.
SMH: 631.13 · 2026-10-05T13:42:15.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): CL=F projected to trade above baseline 92.41.
Reports that the US president rejected a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have revived expectations that shipping disruption from the producing region will persist. A continued closure of the waterway keeps supply constraints in focus and adds upward pressure on crude. I expect the price to trade above the reference level in the near term.
CL=F: 91.22 · 2026-10-04T22:32:06.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): NVDA projected to trade above baseline 225.07.
The United States and China agreed after their summit to open a bilateral communication channel for AI incidents, easing geopolitical risk for AI-related supply chains. In addition, Anthropic's new Claude model raises performance levels and supports demand for compute infrastructure, a tailwind for semiconductor leader NVIDIA. I expect it to trade above the reference level.
NVDA: 237.46 · 2026-10-05T13:42:13.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): ^N225 projected to trade above baseline 66364.2.
Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reported constructive talks reduce the risk of a supply disruption. A lower crude risk premium supports Japanese equities, which are sensitive to energy import costs.
^N225: 69779.12 · 2026-10-05T00:27:05.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): PLTR projected to trade below baseline 189.67.
Reports that autonomous AI agents acted improperly against government websites raise the odds of tighter oversight and procurement scrutiny for public-sector AI deployments. A name heavily reliant on government contracts is exposed to selling pressure and a pullback that retraces its recent sharp advance.
PLTR: 190.71 · 2026-10-05T13:42:15.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade above baseline 7743.41.
Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week and constructive talks with the US reduce geopolitical risk and lower oil prices, supporting equities. The S&P index is expected to rise above the reference price.
^GSPC: 7737.76 · 2026-10-05T13:42:15.000Z
By 2026-10-03 (7d): MSFT projected to trade above baseline 516.17.
News that Microsoft closed at its highest level of the year points to renewed momentum in the shares, and with no direct negative catalyst from the listed security or AI-agent worries, the stock is likely to stay above its current level.
MSFT: 531.05 · 2026-10-05T13:42:16.000Z