On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-09-30 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 26930.94.
Surging bond yields and fears of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes are intensifying a risk-off stance, pressuring the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Moreover, proposed legislation banning superintelligence development raises regulatory risks for AI-related stocks, making a correction likely after the recent sharp rally.
^IXIC: 27041.76 · 2026-09-30T17:41:55.000Z
By 2026-09-30 (7d): META projected to trade above baseline 736.6.
Meta's Muse app climbing to the top of the U.S. App Store productivity category and surpassing the leading conversational assistant is the direct catalyst. Expectations for dominance in personal AI and an expanded advertising ecosystem should sustain upward pressure above the reference level.
META: 727.65 · 2026-09-30T13:41:56.000Z
By 2026-09-30 (7d): AMD projected to trade above baseline 623.77.
A startup backed by Pat Gelsinger has raised a large round to attack the next AI bottleneck, which it frames not as the accelerator itself but as the networking that feeds data to it, directly challenging Nvidia's AI networking moat and pointing to revenue opportunities for AMD. In addition, expectations that the inference market will grow faster than the training market support wider adoption of AMD accelerators. A sharp recent rally leaves room for short-term consolidation, but the catalyst is clearly positive, so I expect the price to move above the reference level.
AMD: 605.52 · 2026-09-30T13:41:56.000Z
By 2026-09-30 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade above baseline 86584.26.
The United States and Iran held talks at the United Nations General Assembly, raising hopes for de-escalation. A fading geopolitical risk premium supports risk assets broadly, and the record-setting Nasdaq rally reflects bullish investor appetite that can spill over into crypto, favoring Bitcoin upside.
BTC-USD: 83329.52 · 2026-09-30T01:41:54.000Z
By 2026-09-30 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 228.87.
Nvidia’s cooling valuations are being viewed as a warning signal, while the slowdown in the SoftBank-backed SB Energy listing points to financing stress across the AI infrastructure buildout. This raises doubts about the sustainability of AI-related spending and likely creates near-term selling pressure on Nvidia shares.
NVDA: 230.73 · 2026-09-30T13:41:56.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): TSM projected to trade above baseline 452.
Qualcomm's newly announced flagship chips will be manufactured on TSMC's most advanced process node, once again validating demand for leading-edge foundry capacity. With semiconductor ETFs and major chip designers surging together, the company's dominant foundry position should attract continued order expectations and keep the shares above their current level.
TSM: 455.26 · 2026-09-30T13:41:53.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): META projected to trade above baseline 741.4.
As the catalyst notes, the narrative that Meta's viral Muse app could be the company's breakthrough moment is spreading quickly across the market. Hopes for diversifying beyond advertising and monetizing consumer AI services are acting as a clear bullish driver, and sentiment has shifted decisively to the optimistic side. As long as this positive news flow persists, the stock should trade above the reference level.
META: 732.99 · 2026-09-29T18:41:57.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): ETH-USD projected to trade below baseline 2725.74.
European central banks pushing to expand the stablecoin yield ban into crypto lending and staking creates a regulatory overhang for Ethereum staking economics and demand. After the sharp rally, this negative catalyst can trigger profit-taking and leave the price below its current level.
ETH-USD: 2680.47 · 2026-09-29T15:41:55.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): CL=F projected to trade above baseline 90.26.
Bank of America warns that oil could surge much higher if supplies tighten further, while the expanding Iran war heightens supply risks. Geopolitical instability and tightening-supply concerns should push crude prices above the current level.
CL=F: 90.46 · 2026-09-29T13:31:57.000Z
By 2026-09-29 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7764.7.
Escalating Russian strikes on Ukraine, Lithuanian warnings over Moscow, and major economies' concerns about Houthi attacks in Yemen heighten geopolitical risk and weigh on U.S. equities. After a recent rally, the benchmark faces a pullback and trades below the reference level.
^GSPC: 7686.26 · 2026-09-29T13:41:59.000Z