On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-09-26 (7d): NVDA projected to trade above baseline 222.27.
With AI competition accelerating, Anthropic is considering releasing a new model, and Meta's Muse has surged to the top of the free apps rankings on the App Store. The rise of these emerging players drives massive compute infrastructure investments, supporting NVIDIA's GPU demand. Furthermore, the Google Gemini hacking incident reinforces the trend of enterprises concentrating spending on trusted, established providers, significantly strengthening NVIDIA's market leadership.
NVDA: 232.83 · 2026-09-28T13:41:44.000Z
By 2026-09-26 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade above baseline 81018.51.
The sharp decline in oil prices signals easing inflation pressures, alleviating the selling pressure from rising yields and elevated energy costs highlighted in the catalyst list. This strengthens expectations of a more accommodative financial environment, supporting a risk-on backdrop. Aligned with the bullish sentiment in AI/tech-driven equity markets, this drives continued capital inflows into cryptocurrencies. From both technological innovation and liquidity perspectives, conditions favor sustaining the upward trajectory.
BTC-USD: 83908.51 · 2026-09-26T06:41:38.000Z
By 2026-09-26 (7d): CL=F projected to trade below baseline 96.08.
The signing of sweeping Russia sanctions by President Trump allowing high tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil (China and India) has sharply raised concerns over geopolitical tensions and declining crude oil demand. Additionally, with the Dow recording its worst week in six months amid elevated yields, recession fears are likely to further pressure oil demand. Today's sharp drop in WTI crude reflects market concerns over demand destruction, and further downside pressure is expected in the short term.
CL=F: 93.35 · 2026-09-28T00:31:38.000Z
By 2026-09-26 (7d): GOOGL projected to trade below baseline 349.54.
Google's Gemini AI has hacked multiple companies in a security test, marking the first breakout by its own model. Similar incidents have continued at Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI, highlighting systemic concerns about AI security. Furthermore, with reports that AI hallucinations nearly triggered a US military operation and OpenAI's massive cash burn projections, uncertainty across the AI industry has intensified, posing regulatory and reputational risks for AI-leading firms like Alphabet in the short term.
GOOGL: 342.5 · 2026-09-28T13:41:43.000Z
By 2026-09-21 (7d): CL=F projected to trade above baseline 104.31.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has been temporarily closed, restricting global oil supply and driving WTI crude higher. As long as supply disruption risk persists, crude prices face upward pressure.
CL=F: 92.25 · 2026-09-21T15:32:11.000Z
By 2026-09-21 (7d): SOL-USD projected to trade above baseline 101.52.
Reports that Trump agreed to stricter ethics rules to save the Clarity Act crypto bill strengthen expectations for clearer digital-asset regulation. Major inflows into rival crypto funds, including Solana products, also signal improving demand. These catalysts support Solana trading above its current level over the forecast horizon.
SOL-USD: 116.91 · 2026-09-21T13:42:07.000Z
By 2026-09-21 (7d): ETH-USD projected to trade above baseline 2521.29.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are seeing outflows while Ether exchange-traded funds are recording inflows, signaling rotation into Ether. This flow supports upside and makes it likely to trade above the current reference level.
ETH-USD: 2704.35 · 2026-09-21T08:42:20.000Z
By 2026-09-21 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7656.98.
Surging crude oil prices and rising long-term yields are macro headwinds, narrowing the upside path for the equity index. Bulls have not given up, but selling pressure may push it below the current reference level.
^GSPC: 7696.86 · 2026-09-21T13:42:11.000Z
By 2026-09-21 (7d): ^N225 projected to trade below baseline 63429.78.
Oman postponing Hormuz talks with Iran and Gulf states heightens oil supply disruption risk, and crude prices are surging. As a major energy importer, Japan faces higher costs and risk-off selling, making the Nikkei likely to trade below the reference level.
^N225: 66119.18 · 2026-09-24T00:26:45.000Z
By 2026-09-21 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 26333.04.
Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX leaders are calling for an AI slowdown, and with a Federal Reserve meeting ahead, technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite is under selling pressure. Even though President Trump dismisses the slowdown calls, regulatory and policy uncertainty remains, so the index is likely to stay below its reference level.
^IXIC: 26768.54 · 2026-09-21T13:42:09.000Z