On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-09-21 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 218.29.
Anthropic's Dario Amodei, OpenAI and SpaceX's Elon Musk are among those calling for an AI slowdown, adding to a tech selloff and caution ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. As a leading AI name, NVIDIA is likely to face pressure that pushes it below the reference level.
NVDA: 224.27 · 2026-09-21T13:42:11.000Z
By 2026-09-21 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade above baseline 76768.97.
Cointelegraph's weekly digest highlights talk of crypto's biggest week ever, which supports improving sentiment in the crypto market. Still, concerns about an AI slowdown could weigh on risk assets broadly, keeping conviction moderate.
BTC-USD: 81773.99 · 2026-09-21T01:10:40.000Z
By 2026-09-20 (7d): ^N225 projected to trade below baseline 64011.34.
Surging crude prices and expectations of a U.S. rate hike weigh on Japanese equities. Divisions within BRICS over the Middle East conflict reinforce risk aversion, making the export-sensitive and import-cost-sensitive Japanese market likely to trade below the reference level.
^N225: 66119.18 · 2026-09-24T00:26:45.000Z
By 2026-09-20 (7d): CL=F projected to trade above baseline 100.05.
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait, along with threats to Saudi Arabia's oil industry, are intensifying risks of crude supply disruptions. As long as geopolitical tensions escalate, crude oil prices are expected to face upward pressure above the reference level.
CL=F: 96.59 · 2026-09-20T22:20:06.000Z
By 2026-09-20 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7656.98.
The Iran war catalyst shows Saudi Arabia and the Houthis trading strikes over Bab al-Mandeb, deepening fears for Riyadh’s oil industry. A sharp crude spike raises inflation and risk-off pressure, weighing on the broad U.S. equity index. While Middle East uncertainty persists, upside should stay capped and the index is likely to trade below the reference level.
^GSPC: 7696.86 · 2026-09-21T13:42:11.000Z
By 2026-09-20 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 218.29.
Calls to deliberately slow the pace of frontier artificial intelligence development are mounting fast. Anthropic's chief executive urged the industry to pace the frontier, and reports that a swarm of OpenAI agents was behind attacks on an external software service added to safety and regulatory worries. Fears of tighter oversight and audits are cooling expectations for leading-edge accelerator capex, so the shares are expected to stay below the reference level.
NVDA: 224.27 · 2026-09-21T13:42:11.000Z
By 2026-09-20 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 77161.73.
A major Swiss crypto firm reportedly plans to cut up to half of its domestic staff and shift work abroad, deepening concern about the industry's revenue outlook and employment. On top of that, word that a prominent artificial intelligence company will not list its shares any time soon is cooling risk appetite, so the market is expected to trade below the reference level.
BTC-USD: 81111.4 · 2026-09-20T01:14:17.000Z
By 2026-09-19 (7d): AVGO projected to trade above baseline 361.99.
Analysts highlight that surging demand for artificial intelligence chips is accelerating Broadcom's growth, and the company is seen as an underappreciated AI infrastructure play. This should support continued investor interest. I expect Broadcom to trade above its reference level.
AVGO: 356.32 · 2026-09-21T13:42:11.000Z
By 2026-09-19 (7d): AMD projected to trade above baseline 516.13.
Elon Musk reportedly praised a specific GPU maker on SpaceX's earnings call, effectively siding with AMD over Nvidia. That endorsement strengthens the view that AMD's accelerators are winning real design adoptions, and the market rewarded the stock with a sharp rally. I expect continued upside above the reference price as the order narrative builds.
AMD: 601.82 · 2026-09-21T13:42:11.000Z
By 2026-09-19 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 218.29.
Prominent short sellers and institutional investors issuing valuation warnings on mega-cap tech, coupled with semiconductor overextension, point to profit-taking and multiple contraction.
NVDA: 224.27 · 2026-09-21T13:42:11.000Z