On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-10-30 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade above baseline 81747.57.
Switzerland's approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF for retail investors broadens access to the asset and could attract fresh allocations. By enabling a new class of buyers and validating Bitcoin as an investable asset, the regulatory decision supports a move above the baseline.
BTC-USD: 77262.88 · 2026-10-31T00:41:22.000Z
By 2026-10-30 (7d): MSFT projected to trade above baseline 521.08.
Reuters reported that Microsoft developed an AI tool capable of sequential diagnosis like a doctor, signaling progress in differentiating and commercializing AI for healthcare. The product could support enterprise adoption and offset recent weakness, although clinical validation and regulatory requirements keep confidence moderate.
MSFT: 519.98 · 2026-11-02T17:41:22.000Z
By 2026-10-29 (7d): META projected to trade below baseline 648.85.
Meta's decision to distribute non-voting shares to holders and use the new equity structure to finance its AI buildout is a direct downside catalyst. Although Zuckerberg retains voting control, the heavier capital requirement and future share-supply overhang can compress valuation relative to the current benchmark, with further downside risk over the coming week.
META: 611.16 · 2026-11-02T17:41:22.000Z
By 2026-10-29 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade above baseline 81255.3.
The Winklevoss PAC entered the Texas Senate race with an advertising campaign advocating a crypto reserve. Although the campaign alone does not guarantee enactment, greater expectations for institutional adoption and regulatory acceptance could support Bitcoin allocation flows and risk appetite.
BTC-USD: 78982.02 · 2026-10-29T22:41:24.000Z
By 2026-10-29 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 25929.21.
The emergence of a free AI-based software replication tool described as the end of software raises concerns that pricing power and margins for paid software and AI applications could erode, creating downside pressure for Nasdaq software holdings. Community friction over a data-center campus in Utah also adds regulatory and social costs to technology investment.
^IXIC: 25502.26 · 2026-11-02T17:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-26 (7d): META projected to trade above baseline 709.33.
Meta’s open-weights model Muse Spark Open reportedly earned the highest score among US open-weights models and surpassed NVIDIA’s Nemotron, strengthening Meta’s AI credibility and creating upward pressure. Broad tech weakness is a headwind, but relative resilience and the model release should support the stock.
META: 632.57 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-26 (7d): GOOGL projected to trade above baseline 340.59.
The newest Gemini model entered wide release for paying subscribers and developer tooling, with a sharply expanded output ceiling and introductory pricing. That reinforces its product and price competitiveness versus rivals, making a rebound from the recent pullback more likely than further decline.
GOOGL: 317.05 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-26 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade above baseline 26140.03.
China's GDP beat estimates, improving global risk appetite and lifting Nasdaq futures, which should support a rebound in the Nasdaq Composite.
^IXIC: 26204.71 · 2026-10-26T19:41:18.000Z
By 2026-10-26 (7d): ETH-USD projected to trade below baseline 2422.02.
The Qubic chain freeze after an attacker drained funds from numerous wallets with weak seeds has reignited concerns over crypto security and retail asset protection. Meanwhile, US PPI came in far above expectations, leading markets to price in continued Fed rate hikes, which pressures risk assets broadly. Ethereum, with its high beta, is sensitive to such macro headwinds and deteriorating sentiment, and is expected to trade below the reference level.
ETH-USD: 2320.5 · 2026-10-26T12:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-26 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 214.13.
SemiAnalysis reports Google's new TPU beats NVIDIA's flagship rack-scale platform on performance per dollar, amplifying the semiconductor selloff and raising concerns over NVIDIA's pricing power and gross margin outlook. While this competitive shift persists, the stock is expected to trade below the reference price.
NVDA: 216.41 · 2026-10-26T19:41:13.000Z