On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-10-26 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 82085.09.
Bitcoin ETFs continue to see massive outflows, and the monthly rally remains in the red. Meanwhile, a much hotter-than-expected US producer price report strengthens expectations for further rate hikes, adding headwinds for crypto. While outflows and tightening fears persist, the price is expected to trade below the reference level.
BTC-USD: 80201.4 · 2026-10-26T12:41:23.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): AMD projected to trade below baseline 528.75.
SemiAnalysis’ analysis that the latest TPU substantially beats AMD’s GPU on performance per dollar reinforces concerns about AMD’s competitive position. With broad selling pressure across semiconductor shares and the recent sharp drop signaling deteriorating demand and supply, the stock is expected to trade below the reference level.
AMD: 532.27 · 2026-10-26T19:41:20.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): TSM projected to trade below baseline 412.61.
Reports that Taiwan drove away Chinese ships significantly raise tensions in the Taiwan Strait. TSMC is a major semiconductor company based in Taiwan, making geopolitical risk a direct selling catalyst. Additionally, Nvidia's plan to use TSMC's advanced process does not offset concerns about supply chain disruptions. The stock is likely to fall below the current level.
TSM: 427.74 · 2026-10-26T19:41:22.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7659.44.
Taiwan driving away Chinese ships and attacks on oil facilities and a data center in St Petersburg intensify geopolitical risk and push investors toward risk aversion. Such tensions are likely to weigh on broad equity indices and keep the index below the reference level.
^GSPC: 7680.48 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): SMH projected to trade below baseline 539.79.
The producer price index came in far above expectations, rapidly hardening expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate hikes, and rising discount rates directly compress growth-heavy semiconductor valuations. On top of that, deteriorating AI-related credit (surging bond yields at data-center-linked issuers and some debt trading well below par) combined with reports that a large share of planned large-scale data center projects face delays, withdrawal or blocking, keeps funding anxiety around the AI capex cycle alive and sustains sector-wide selling pressure. Even after the steep recent decline, structural rate headwinds and doubts over buildout credibility make prices likely to trade below the baseline over the coming week.
SMH: 544.18 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): CL=F projected to trade above baseline 99.02.
Reports that crude-laden tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire have abruptly crystallized supply-disruption risk at the world's most critical oil chokepoint. A partial closure there would tighten the market fast. Washington's temporary suspension of Russia sanctions adds supply, but that is outweighed by the chokepoint shock. With producer prices far above expectations and money rotating into real assets and commodities, crude is poised to trade above its current level.
CL=F: 101.15 · 2026-10-26T12:31:24.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 214.13.
Analysis showing that the newest dedicated inference chip beats competing GPU racks on performance per dollar for agent workloads is intensifying competition in AI semiconductors. Concerns are rising that major cloud providers will shift procurement toward in-house silicon, keeping selling pressure on NVIDIA. The stock is expected to trade below its current level.
NVDA: 216.41 · 2026-10-26T19:41:13.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 81370.36.
The US producer price report came in well above expectations, and the prospect of continued rate hikes is weakening support for crypto assets. At the same time, crypto firms have launched a quantum resistance alliance, highlighting warnings that a large amount of Bitcoin remains exposed to quantum computing threats. With broad risk-asset selling pressure, Bitcoin is likely to trade below its current level.
BTC-USD: 80733.89 · 2026-10-25T01:41:26.000Z
By 2026-10-25 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 26140.03.
The US producer price report came in far above expectations, strengthening the view that monetary tightening will continue. Rising rates weigh heavily on high-valuation technology and semiconductor shares, and the Nasdaq has already sold off sharply. With few catalysts for a rebound, the index is likely to stay below its current level over the forecast window.
^IXIC: 26204.71 · 2026-10-26T19:41:18.000Z
By 2026-10-24 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 26140.03.
The US producer price index came in far above market expectations, intensifying fears of reaccelerating inflation and boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates. This is putting strong selling pressure on the tech and growth-heavy Nasdaq Composite, with semiconductor stocks already plunging and a clear correction underway. As long as the prospect of prolonged monetary tightening persists, the index is likely to stay below its reference level.
^IXIC: 26204.71 · 2026-10-26T19:41:18.000Z