On the record
Prediction ledger
Published forecasts are immutable. Misses remain visible.
By 2026-10-24 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7659.44.
Reports that a supertanker struck a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire are stoking oil supply disruption fears. A spike in energy prices revives inflation concerns and pressures corporate margins, while geopolitical risk aversion weighs on the broad index, supporting a downside move from the reference level.
^GSPC: 7680.48 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-24 (7d): SMH projected to trade below baseline 539.79.
With U.S. producer prices far above expectations and expectations for continued tightening growing, the tech selloff is hitting software and chip stocks alike. A semiconductor ETF is sensitive to rates and high-tech demand, so selling pressure is likely to persist.
SMH: 544.18 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-24 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 214.13.
The catalyst noting that the tech selloff is hitting software and chip stocks alike, combined with reports that Google's TPU offers better performance per dollar than NVIDIA's GB-class accelerators in agentic inference benchmarks, heightens concerns over competition and pricing power. AI demand remains strong, but while the semiconductor sector undergoes a broad correction, NVIDIA is likely to trade below the reference level.
NVDA: 216.41 · 2026-10-26T19:41:13.000Z
By 2026-10-24 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 81515.67.
Geopolitical risk is spiking after reports that the US Navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has stopped Iranian ships and that multiple oil tankers and vessels have been hit. With crude surging and tech stocks selling off, crypto assets are likely to face the same risk-off pressure as highly liquid risk assets and trade below the reference level.
BTC-USD: 80850.11 · 2026-10-24T03:41:20.000Z
By 2026-10-23 (7d): ^GSPC projected to trade below baseline 7659.44.
The hotter-than-expected US PPI, with core inflation also staying elevated, has sharply increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising rates. This tightening pressure weighs on equity valuations, and the selloff in large-cap technology and semiconductor shares confirms broad risk reduction. As long as inflation re-acceleration and prolonged monetary tightening concerns persist, the major index is likely to trade below the reference level.
^GSPC: 7680.48 · 2026-10-26T19:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-23 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 26713.03.
Fed Chair Warsh withheld an October rate signal and warned the AI path is bumpy, a headwind for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite. Fading rate-cut expectations and caution on AI themes are likely to reinforce selling pressure.
^IXIC: 26070.34 · 2026-10-23T15:41:21.000Z
By 2026-10-23 (7d): META projected to trade above baseline 736.72.
The direct basis is the AI catalyst: Meta released Muse Spark Open, a large open model. Its long-context, multimodal reasoning and long-horizon agent capabilities highlight competitive strength, likely lifting sentiment toward the company's AI strategy, so the stock is expected to move above the reference level.
META: 646.1 · 2026-10-23T15:41:25.000Z
By 2026-10-23 (7d): NVDA projected to trade below baseline 217.23.
A worsening tech wreck and renewed artificial intelligence fears are pressuring NVIDIA and other chip stocks as investors dump artificial intelligence-related shares, so the price is expected to fall below the reference.
NVDA: 212.43 · 2026-10-23T15:41:26.000Z
By 2026-10-23 (7d): BTC-USD projected to trade below baseline 82323.
Russia's central bank confirmed a forthcoming ban on direct peer-to-peer Bitcoin trading, forcing trades through approved brokers or exchanges. Reduced direct liquidity and softer crypto sentiment are likely to push the price below the reference.
BTC-USD: 81747.57 · 2026-10-23T02:41:17.000Z
By 2026-10-22 (7d): ^IXIC projected to trade below baseline 26692.87.
Hot US inflation has revived rate-hike expectations and triggered selling in richly valued tech shares. The AI trade is splintering, leaving the tech-heavy index exposed to further downside. I expect it to trade below the reference level.
^IXIC: 25929.21 · 2026-10-22T19:41:23.000Z